Notes

Occasional notes.

Short, reproducible pieces on data, measurement, and the odd fun problem.

June 2026 · Groundhog Day

Groundhog Day by the Numbers

The 2026 field — and which prognosticators actually get it right

It's not just Punxsutawney Phil: 117 prognosticators made a 2026 call across 35 states and provinces, only two-thirds of them actual groundhogs. Scored against real local weather, they're right about half the time — and a stuffed groundhog does as well as a live one. A base-rate lesson in a silly costume.

Groundhog DayPrediction accuracyBase ratesData visualizationR
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